Brexit Has Created A Political Climate No Budget Can Fix

The decision to leave the European Union, commonly referred to as Brexit, has had profound and far-reaching implications for the United Kingdom. Beyond its economic and trade ramifications, Brexit has triggered a seismic shift in the political landscape of the country. The ensuing political climate has proven to be a challenge of immense proportions, one that no budget can mend. We dive into the political consequences of Brexit, exploring the divisions it has sown, the challenges it has presented, and the uncertain road ahead for the UK’s political landscape.

Brexit: A Political Earthquake

On June 23, 2016, the UK held a referendum in which citizens were asked a simple yet momentous question: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” The result, with 51.9% of voters opting to leave, set in motion a series of events that would change the course of the UK’s history.

The Immediate Fallout:

• The referendum result led to the resignation of then-Prime Minister David Cameron, who had advocated for remaining in the EU.
• Theresa May succeeded Cameron as Prime Minister and was tasked with negotiating the terms of the UK’s exit from the EU.

Negotiations and Delays:

• The negotiations between the UK and the EU proved to be a protracted and complex process, with numerous issues to resolve, including the status of EU citizens in the UK and the contentious question of the Irish border.
• Multiple deadline extensions and delays characterized the negotiations, prolonging the uncertainty.

The Withdrawal Agreement:

• In November 2018, the UK and the EU reached a draft withdrawal agreement. This agreement set out the terms of the UK’s exit, including the contentious “backstop” arrangement for the Irish border.
• The withdrawal agreement faced significant opposition in the UK Parliament, leading to its rejection multiple times.

A New Prime Minister:

• In July 2019, Boris Johnson became the UK’s new Prime Minister. His leadership was marked by a commitment to delivering Brexit, with or without a deal.

A Deal and a General Election:

• An amended withdrawal agreement was finally approved in October 2019, but the UK Parliament also voted for a general election.

The UK Officially Leaves the EU:

• On January 31, 2020, the UK officially left the EU, entering a transition period.

Trade Deal:

• A trade deal with the EU was eventually reached on December 24, 2020, marking the conclusion of the transition period.

A Divided Nation

One of the most significant political consequences of Brexit has been the deep division it has sown within the UK. The “leave” and “remain” camps have not only persisted but have become entrenched, leading to a bitterly divided nation.

Brexit and Identity:

• Brexit tapped into a sense of national identity and sovereignty. For “leave” supporters, it represented a reassertion of the UK’s control over its laws and borders.
• For “remain” supporters, particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland, Brexit raised questions about their place in the UK and their European identity.

Scottish Independence:

• The result of the Brexit referendum, in which Scotland voted to remain, reignited discussions about Scottish independence.
• The Scottish National Party (SNP) has been a vocal proponent of another independence referendum, arguing that Scotland should have the right to determine its future within or outside the UK.

Irish Border Complexities:

• The issue of the Irish border has been a thorn in the side of Brexit negotiations. The Good Friday Agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland, hinged on an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
• The “backstop” arrangement, designed to prevent a hard border, became a focal point of debate and controversy.

Economic Disparities:

• Regional disparities in the UK have been further highlighted by Brexit. Areas that voted heavily to leave the EU, particularly in the North of England, have felt left behind and neglected by the political establishment.
• The economic impact of Brexit, including disruptions in trade, has hit some regions harder than others.

The Erosion of Trust

Another critical political consequence of Brexit has been the erosion of trust in the political system and institutions. The prolonged and contentious process of negotiating and implementing Brexit has led to a significant loss of confidence in political leaders and the political system as a whole.

Parliamentary Gridlock:

• The UK Parliament was repeatedly deadlocked during the Brexit process, with MPs unable to agree on a path forward. This led to a perception of inefficiency and indecision.

Broken Promises:

• Both the “leave” and “remain” camps accused political leaders of breaking promises and not delivering on the commitments made during the referendum and subsequent campaigns.

The Proroguing of Parliament:

• In September 2019, Boris Johnson’s decision to prorogue (suspend) Parliament was met with accusations of undermining democracy. The move was later deemed unlawful by the UK Supreme Court.

Loss of International Standing:

• Brexit has had implications for the UK’s international reputation. The contentious and prolonged process has led to questions about the country’s political stability and ability to govern effectively.

Trust in Politicians:

• Surveys and polls have consistently shown a decline in trust in politicians and political institutions. This erosion of trust extends to a broader disillusionment with the political class.

The Impact on Political Parties

The political landscape of the UK has been reshaped by Brexit. It has brought significant challenges for the major political parties.

The Conservative Party:

• The Conservative Party, under Boris Johnson’s leadership, successfully delivered Brexit. However, the party’s approach to Brexit, including the controversial proroguing of Parliament, has been polarizing.
• The Conservative Party’s traditional base in the South of England has shown unwavering support, while the party has made inroads in traditionally Labour-supporting areas in the North.

The Labour Party:

• The Labour Party, under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, struggled to articulate a clear position on Brexit. The party’s ambiguity on the issue contributed to its poor performance in the 2019 general election.
• The party has been grappling with how to reconnect with its traditional working-class supporters in the North who voted for Brexit.

The Liberal Democrats:

• The Liberal Democrats, who staunchly supported remaining in the EU, saw a surge in support immediately following the Brexit referendum.
• However, the party struggled in the 2019 general election, with voters divided along Brexit lines and seeking clarity on other policy positions.

The Scottish National Party (SNP):

• The SNP has capitalized on the desire for Scottish independence, which was reinvigorated by the Brexit vote.
• The party’s calls for another independence referendum have been met with mixed reactions in the UK.